Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax

Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax

Bestie Intros: Reservation Tips! (00:00:00)

  • A person has been reselling restaurant reservations, especially for high-end establishments like Carbone, for prices as high as $70,000.
  • To secure reservations at top restaurants, it's recommended to provide cash tips to the maitre'd and bartenders.
  • A successful technique involves approaching the maitre'd without a prior booking, apologizing for the oversight, and offering a $50 bill as an incentive for assistance, with a reported 99% success rate.
  • While this tactic could be seen as a bribe, the speaker argues that it's a form of advance tipping for exceptional service.
  • Pre-tipping increases the chances of securing a reservation and ensures good service. In one instance, a pre-tip was returned when a reservation couldn't be accommodated, but the bartender still took care of the customers.

Meta goes scorched earth in AI, why the stock was down despite beating on earnings (00:05:20)

  • Meta is open-sourcing its AI models and operating systems, like Llama and Meta Horizon OS, to create a healthier AI ecosystem and prevent any single entity from dominating the field.
  • Meta is integrating an AI assistant chatbot into its apps (Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp) and plans to invest heavily in infrastructure despite a recent 16% stock drop.
  • Meta's release of the open-source AI model, Llama 3, comparable to GPT-4, challenges closed models by enabling faster training and deployment.
  • Open-sourcing foundational models like Llama 3 may limit commercial interest and value in developing such models, potentially undermining the economic moat of companies like Meta.
  • Meta is transforming its platforms into a search engine, leveraging its vast user base and combining psychographic and content data to potentially capture 10% of the search market, which could significantly impact Google's dominance.
  • Meta's excessive spending on AI, particularly on Nvidia for inference purposes, was met with negative market reactions due to concerns about inefficient resource allocation and Nvidia's weakness in inference capabilities.

Tesla's roadmap, ranking the company's highest-upside bets outside of cars for the next 10 years (00:22:20)

  • Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD2) launched at a reduced price of $8K and is now available for a monthly subscription of $100.
  • Tesla announced a 10% workforce reduction (14,000 employees) and plans to reincorporate in Texas.
  • Tesla's stock experienced a significant drop due to decreased demand for EVs but rose after Elon Musk announced new models and the Cybercab.
  • Tesla's strategic execution of its long-term plan, outlined in the Master Plan Part 2, was well-received by investors.
  • Tesla's capital allocation and progress in AI infrastructure were seen positively, despite some setbacks.
  • The Optimus robot has the potential to revolutionize various industries and create a new market.
  • Tesla faces challenges due to economic slowdown and high-interest rates impacting car payments.
  • Chinese competitors like BYD pose a long-term threat with their low-priced knockoff products.
  • Ride-sharing offers passenger safety, sustainability, and reduced traffic, making it a promising venture for Tesla.
  • Energy disruption presents a significant opportunity due to rising utility rates and the potential for mini-utilities to compete with incumbents.
  • Tesla's Optimus robot has the highest potential for disruption, followed by energy disruption and ride-sharing.
  • Meta's aggressive AI approach raises concerns about energy demands and potential grid issues.
  • Solar and battery solutions can reduce reliance on grids and prevent outages.
  • Tesla's FSD2 shows improvement but is limited to controlled environments; widespread adoption is still years away.
  • Cruise and Waymo are operating self-driving taxis with remote driver intervention, while Tesla's remote safety driver feature has the potential to revolutionize the industry.
  • The self-driving car market is likely to be dominated by a few major players due to the significant resources and data required for success.
  • Tesla has an advantage due to its large fleet of cars on the road and the data collected from its drivers.

FTC bans noncompetes: impact on startups and company formation (00:47:25)

  • The FTC voted 3-2 to ban non-compete agreements, affecting 30 million workers in the US. The ruling takes effect in 120 days and will make existing non-competes unenforceable, except for senior-level executives and certain other exceptions.
  • Supporters argue that the ban will create more startups and increase competition, while opponents say the FTC overstepped its authority and that non-competes protect companies' investments in employees.
  • California already has laws against non-competes, but they are still widely used in other states, especially in industries like agriculture, finance, and technology.
  • The FTC estimates that the ban will create 8,500 new startups per year, fostering rapid innovation by allowing talent to flow freely, as seen in California's tech industry.
  • Non-compete agreements can be useful in certain industries, such as chemical engineering, where intellectual property is valuable and easily transferable.
  • In the media business, non-competes are prevalent, leading some high-profile figures to start shows on the internet to avoid restrictions imposed by traditional networks.
  • Employees are allowed to take with them anything in their heads, which is one of the ways that best practices become more common.
  • Employees should not take any work product with them when they leave a company, as it is the property of the company.

Besties reminisce on their encounters with Steve Jobs (01:00:33)

  • Steve Jobs expressed concern about Adobe actively recruiting Apple employees and threatened legal action.
  • Google's launch of Android and Eric Schmidt's departure from Apple's board led to Steve Jobs feeling betrayed, despite a non-poaching agreement between the companies.
  • Marissa Mayer proposed caching 200 megabytes of the internet on the iPod for offline browsing, but Apple did not respond and later released the iPhone with similar functionality.
  • Jason Calacanis suggested the idea of downloading and watching short video clips on the iPod, which Steve Jobs initially dismissed but later implemented as a feature.
  • Chamath Palihapitiya shared his experience working at AOL and their missed opportunity to create a successful music download store.
  • Chamath met Steve Jobs at Mac World in 2003 and was impressed by his greatness.
  • Chamath had a job interview with Apple in 2011 for the potential role of head of iPhone, but it didn't materialize due to cultural fit issues.
  • Chamath described his admiration for Steve Jobs and compared meeting him to a believer meeting Jesus.
  • Chamath mentioned his famous encounter with Steve Jobs where he asked a question that left Jobs speechless.
  • The speaker announced a confrontational approach, promising satisfying content for a specific audience or group of supporters.

TikTok "divest-or-ban" bill is signed into law: Will China comply? What's it worth without the algorithm? Will a deal get done? (01:10:25)

  • The Senate passed a bill that includes a TikTok ban, along with foreign aid for Ukraine and Israel.
  • ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, is considering selling a majority stake in TikTok's US business due to the ban.
  • The divesture requirement faces challenges as China may not allow TikTok to divest, potentially leading to a shutdown.
  • Another bill passed allows warrantless spying on Americans by the federal government, raising concerns about privacy and civil liberties.
  • The TikTok ban is based on fears of data sharing with the Chinese government, but concrete proof has not been presented.
  • The ban establishes a new category of "foreign adversary controlled applications," giving the government broad power to shut down apps it deems problematic.
  • Telegram, with its Russian founder and rumors of data sharing, is seen as a potential next target for the government's ban.
  • Elon Musk's X could be targeted by the US government in a second Biden term, with the goal of pressuring Musk to divest the company.
  • TikTok's potential sale in the US is being considered, with ByteDance likely to hire bankers and run an auction process.
  • Potential buyers for TikTok in the US include Oracle, Microsoft, Walmart, Disney, and Netflix, among others.
  • Warrantless spying is considered a more severe issue than the TikTok ban, and the elimination of physical courts raises concerns about the government's unchecked power.

Biden's proposed capital gains hikes and a 25% wealth tax for those with $100M+ in assets (01:27:22)

  • Biden's proposed budget includes significant capital gains tax hikes for those earning over $1 million per year, potentially doubling the long-term capital gains tax to almost 45%.
  • The budget also proposes a 25% unrealized capital gains tax for taxpayers worth over $100 million, which would tax total income including unrealized capital gains.
  • There is concern that these proposals could stifle innovation and investment in the country.
  • Raising the minimum age for Social Security from 67 to 69 has low support, with only 25% of Americans in favor of this measure.
  • The US government's runaway deficits and debt are leading to a situation where private assets of citizens are seen as belonging to the government to offset liabilities.
  • A wealth tax is being proposed as a solution, but it could have negative economic consequences and destroy the startup ecosystem.
  • The two main presidential candidates, Biden and Trump, represent extreme policies.
  • The All-In Podcast, hosted by Jason Calacanis, is the most listened-to podcast in the world.
  • David Sacks recently spoke at the American Moment conference.
  • David Freedberg, the CEO of Ohal Genetics, is hiring a full-time researcher.
  • The Summit, an event for limited partners (LPs) and general partners (GPs), will take place in September in Los Angeles at UCLA.
  • Jason Calacanis is hosting his Liquidity Conference in Napa from June 2nd to 5th, featuring speakers like Ibrahim Al-Ami from Mubadala, David Freedberg, Jamal Pahati, Gavin Baker, Jordan Stein from Crescent Partners, Monique Woodard from Cake Ventures, and Phil Deutch.

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